Weather patterns could influence flu pandemicsGetty


Changes in a weather pattern cycle could be to linked to deadly flu pandemics, say experts.

US scientists have found that the last four pandemics - in 1918, 1957, 1958 and 2009 - all occurred after La Nina events, which bring cool waters to the surface of the eastern Pacific.

The Daily Mail reports that the change in sea temperature, which can drop by as much as three to five degrees celsius, is known to alter the migratory patterns of birds, which are thought to be major carriers of the flu virus.

A research team at Columbia University and Harvard School of Public Health said that these changes in migration patterns can promote the development of dangerous new strains if two existing strains infecting an animal come into contact and exchange genetic material.

Researchers say that other studies show that the La Nina pattern alters the migration, stopover time, fitness and interspecies mixing of migratory birds.

This all supports the gene swapping - or genetic reassortment - that can allow new variations of the flu virus to mutate.

Co-author Dr Jeffrey Shamon, from Columbia University, says: "We know that pandemics arise from dramatic changes in the influenza genome.

"Our hypothesis is that La Nina sets the stage for these changes by reshuffling the mixing patterns of migratory birds which are a major reservoir for influenza."

However The Independent reports that although La Nina may make a pandemic more likely, it isn't enough to cause it.

Many other La Nina events, which occur on a two- to seven-year cycle - have not been followed by a pandemic, which indicates that other factors must be involved.

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